2022-12-29 NBA team tier

Pls enjoy the above graphic. Below I’ve provided a separate tiering with a lot of words that are hopefully enjoyable. Feel free to jump to teams of interest, but disclaimer that I did not write for every team.

Hilarious Tier

Marked by a strong desire to win (no picks!) and remarkable failure/inconsistency in that effort. The front offices have made laughably questionable decisions and the on court product is unserious. There’s no where to go but up, yet they are at their ceiling

Lakers - Lebron is unhappy and his effort on anything unrelated to scoring points is laughable. He’s being ISO’d on a noticeable amount. The team is on Wemby watch and they don’t even have the pick. Zach Lowe has spent hours asking what should be done because it really isn’t clear. The front office and Lebron want different things. The biggest open question is “who is being held accountable for the failure?” Not enough people in the media are laughing at this organization.
Wolves - with their 1 point loss to the Pels, the wolves are even further out of the play-in. It’s tragic how they’re doing Ant. In the immediate term, it’s not all bad but it doesn’t make sense. Points end up on the board in the same way that paint would if it was arbitrarily flung onto a canvas by a robot - it’s there, but there’s no cohesiveness to it at all. It’s unclear what was being cooked. The Gobert trade (a win now trade) has them behind the Jazz, and it might be the worst trade since Brooklyn took the relics of Bostons 08 championship. This comes after the big Tim Connelly signing in the GM. If you gave a PE firm control of this team they would sell ALL the parts away immediately. I still can’t believe they made that trade for Rudy Gogurt.

Giving Nothing Tier

These teams are actively trying to lose. They’re doing it exceptionally.

Rockets - I had to think really hard about what the Rockets are optimizing for. My starting point is that well run organizations act rationally. I think the Rockets are well run, starting with Rafa Stone. So, the question to start with is what are their priorities? Overall, it’s a championship (or is it future revenue? Let’s assume those two things are in the same general direction from where we are today). For the season, clearly it’s Losing. But the number two priority is unclear. Typically, for a team at this stage, it’s typically talent development. The rockets have been so inconsistent with playing time and so reticent with minutes for the youths that it’s hard to assume that the organization is rational if no one is getting fired at this point. What I think is happening is asset management, not player development. Perhaps a bit of a third eye thing here, but I think it’s clear to the Rockets that, even with Wemby here next year, a roster of players that can’t rent cars from Avis is not winning a chip. They have bought low so they can sell high, which is why the rotation is 12 deep and Daishen Nix and Garrison Matthews are getting minutes.
Pistons - Cade is out and Kyllian Hayes just knocked Mo Wagner out with a sucker punch.
Spurs - Pop started the season 5-2 and said to himself “still got it”. RC Buford promptly texted him “Don’t! [Bryson tiller]”, and Pop responded with a stellar 1-16 run. Elite tanking by the Spurs.

How did we get here tier

Whatever the expectations were, they weren’t this. A proper shitstorm of events have led to more questions than answers

Hornets - The Hornets were in the same tier as Knicks to start the season - playoff aspirations with play in obligations - until Miles Bridges brutally abused his wife and was caught. Talk of the team shifted to their Wembayama candidacy. They should sell off the pieces that don’t fit the time frame to the lake show for some picks.
Hawks - The Hawks are the best team on this third of the tiering. They earned their spot with trash vibes. They wake up every day in Luka’s shadow and their GM just got fired but in the way that acquired founders get fired. What’s their winning condition? It’s not clear. Expect more wheel spinning, which doesn’t except a John Collins trade.

Bad, just like we planned it tier

No one expected these teams to be anywhere near the top. Their contract obligations raise a lot of questions about what they’re trying to do. The teams try, but really just aren’t that good.

Wizards - Back to back wins against the 76ers and Suns….and it doesn’t really matter. Why did Washington sign the Beal contract? What does success look like to this team?
Bulls - They play hard, but we’re seeing a re-do of last year post-Lonzo injury. They’ll continue to struggle to score. They should blow it up ASAP and tank. Hard pill to swallow so shortly after the vucevic trade, but that’s why GMs are paid the big bucks, right?

Too good to tank tier

These teams are trying, and they have the league’s respect at this point. They’re on pace to blow past their projected win totals. Their young talent is developing.

Magic (13-23, 13th)
Thunder (15-29, 12th) - Can you imagine the blue balls the Thunder front office are getting from this season? They’ve ate shit for so many years, have developed their thesis on long, wiry players with ball skills, and now, on the precipice of Wemby, SGA and Dort are powering this team to the most damaging mediocrity possible. Expect the GM to personally come courtside and Zaza Pachiula SGA on a three from the wing. I think the tanking will intensify.
Jazz (19-18, 9th)
Pacers (18-17, 8th)

Not particularly good but proud tier

These teams are more or less where we expect them to be and have shown promise. They play hard and will get bounced in the first round/play in

Kings - This is the track meet team. They will win strictly on endurance and shooting touch and it is fun to watch. Fox is no Nash, but the product gets pretty close.
Portland
Knicks - The Knicks knocking Evan Fournier out of the rotation as Grimes got healthy has flipped their season. That plus the improved play of their young core makes the next third of their season really exciting. The old man Thibs has finally come around! Now their success is contingent on execution, development, and talent. They’ve had a couple melt downs down the stretch in recent games, but the silver lining is that they’ve done enough to give themselves the opportunity to choke those games away (lmao that’s hilarious), which they weren’t doing previously. Exciting times in New York!

Are they gonna figure it out tier

Everyone expected more, and will continue to expect more from these teams. Are they going to figure out how to play up to expectations?

Mavs - Who do they trade for? What are they willing to give up? Luka is racking up miles fast. I think it’d be foolish to assume he has the longevity of a Bron. While his peak is yet to come, I would be wary as a Mavs fan. Even if you can squander a year or two of having a top 5 (at worst!) player, do you really want to? Does Luka wanna continue to James-Harden-supercarry the team? Not seeing enough heat from Mavs twitter on Cuban. His mentions should be filled with Trade Machine proposals.
GSW
Toronto - I’m genuinely perplexed with Toronto. They were heralded as the GOATs of wing player development, yet all their wing players have stopped developing. Barnes is still on a good trajectory, but Siakam and OG are not Tatum and Brown. What is Toronto gonna do?
Miami

Talks way too much tier

Tired of hearing of these teams and from these teams. It’s dubious that they’ll do anything of note in the playoffs.

Suns - Ayton and the Suns are like a that couple that you’re friends with but you don’t really hang out with them together (only separate) because they fight every time they’re together. Chris Paul hates joy. Jae Crowder is empty calories. The team is professional to a fault. It’s like an employee that deeply understands the code of conduct and walks the line perfectly. Messy but unimpeachable.
Grizzlies - Desmond Bane is sneakily what all players should be trying to work towards. The strength is ethic. The shot is ethic. The effort and energy is ethic.

Oh shit are they figuring it out tier

Lots of talent, defensively sound, and learning to play with each other still. These teams are getting there and knocking on the door of the next tiers

Pelicans - Are the Pelicans the scariest team in the NBA? I think if you ask any team, this is the team they would want to play the least on any given night. It’s TBD what they look like at the playoff level when the schemes and memes take over (should anyone guard Herb Jones?), but boy do they feel dangerous in their own unique way. One trend to pick out here is a blend of youthful talent and experienced, veteran excellence. Not like “Veteran Presence”, but excellence. CJ, Donovan (Cavs), and past years Butler with the Heat are all examples of veteran excellence bridging the gap for the youths to bring their energy. The incumbent inevitability is that youth is on the come up and the old guard is washed. I think this will be the year where, across the board, the teams with more elite young talent will win over teams with more elite experienced talent.
76ers - There’s a lot for the 76ers to figure out. I know 20-13 looks good, but if you watch the end of games, their process down the stretch doesn’t inspire confidence. In the playoffs the threes don’t fall like they used to and the whistle doesn’t…whistle like it used to. It’s unclear what Morey, Doc, or Embiid/Harden have done over the summer to materially change the team’s playoff outcome. Harden and Embiid’s belief in themselves and each other is the only thing keeping the team afloat. But when it’s playoff time: the refs won’t save you, a stepback jumper won’t save you, and Tobias Harris won’t save you.

Dark Horse tier

These teams have been eerily quiet, yet we find them towards the top of the table, as we expected. Still, there’s quite a bit of room to grow. Watch this space.

Cavs
Clippers

Almost as good as they should be, you should be scared tier

_They’re coming and they will challenge. They still have some flaws to figure out before we can take them super seriously, but they’ve “figured it out” and are executing to their strengths. Most importantly, they’re winning _

Nets
Nuggets - “Jamal Murray will find his groove.” “Jamal Murray will find his groove.” “Jamal Murray will find his groove.” When? Klay’s return has been turbulent and his return to excellence delayed indefinitely. Is Jamal staring down the same fate? Recent injury comeback stories, especially with stars, has spoiled us - KD, Paul George, Kawhi, Lebron, Giannis. Perhaps there was some luck and the success rate of returning from injury is regressing to the mean. A dark thing to consider, but check back in come Feb. Will Jamal pick up where he left off in the playoffs? If not, the Nuggets have to make hard decisions about whether this version of their defense is acceptable, and if their roster has the personnel it needs. Denver, as an organization, needs to ask if a WCF exit or even a second round exit meets the goals of their organization and business. There’s a lot of space at the top of that graph

Might be bored with the league tier

Undoubtedly the best teams in the league. Prone to drop games to terrible teams because they just might be bored. When the chips are down though they’ve proven they’re elite. They’re waiting for the playoffs and using the regular season as practice

Bucks - The bench is bad. They emptied the clip for Jrue, won a chip, but no appears content with that (unlike the old Minneapolis team). With that in mind, they’re a piece away in their bench lineups from challenging the Celtics. It’s unclear where that piece will come from or how they’ll get it. Expect some speculation on ZLP as we approach February. To revisit the earlier point about youth, Khris Middleton is 31 and Jrue is 32. I don’t think either is adding to their game. The Bucks’ window is gone unless they can figure out how to get outsized value from Brook’s cap space.
Celtics - The Celtics have outperformed every team in relation to the asset/performance curve. They lost to the Warriors last year, which to me smells like Heat/Thunder in 2012. They need to be back this year or the Boston media might shit itself in failing to separate process vs results vs expectations. I have some iffyness about the J’s down the stretch against certain teams, but so far they haven’t had to cross that bridge as the supporting cast has been so damn good. If they can survive the Bucks (given that the Bucks get healthy) It’s hard to see a team knocking this team off - sans the Pels hitting more hyper growth or the Warriors finding form again, I think they’re nearly a lock for an NBA championship.